Historians rank the U.S. Presidents from best to worse using all the historical knowledge at their disposal. Frequently, groups, such as C-Span, ask these historians to rank the Presidents and average the results together to help reduce bias. The idea is to produce a set of rankings that incorporates a broad range of historians, a vast array of information, and a historical perspective. These rankings include informed assessments of each President’s effectiveness, leadership, moral authority, administrative skills, economic management, vision, and so on. [Read more…] about Understanding Historians’ Rankings of U.S. Presidents using Regression Models

# graphs

## Spearman’s Correlation Explained

Spearman’s correlation in statistics is a nonparametric alternative to Pearson’s correlation. Use Spearman’s correlation for data that follow curvilinear, monotonic relationships and for ordinal data. Statisticians also refer to Spearman’s rank order correlation coefficient as Spearman’s ρ (rho).

In this post, I’ll cover what all that means so you know when and why you should use Spearman’s correlation instead of the more common Pearson’s correlation. [Read more…] about Spearman’s Correlation Explained

## Exponential Smoothing for Time Series Forecasting

Exponential smoothing is a forecasting method for univariate time series data. This method produces forecasts that are weighted averages of past observations where the weights of older observations exponentially decrease. Forms of exponential smoothing extend the analysis to model data with trends and seasonal components. [Read more…] about Exponential Smoothing for Time Series Forecasting

## Answering the Birthday Problem in Statistics

The Birthday Problem in statistics asks, how many people do you need in a group to have a 50% chance that at least two people will share a birthday? Go ahead and think about that for a moment. The answer surprises many people. We’ll get to that shortly.

In this post, I’ll not only answer the birthday paradox, but I’ll also show you how to calculate the probabilities for any size group, run a computer simulation of it, and explain why the answer to the Birthday Problem is so surprising. [Read more…] about Answering the Birthday Problem in Statistics

## Coronavirus Mortality Rates by Country

**UPDATED! April 3, 2020.** The coronavirus mortality rate varies significantly by country. In this post, I look at the mortality rates for ten countries and assess factors that affect these numbers. After discussing the trends, I provide a rough estimate for where the actual fatality rate might lie. [Read more…] about Coronavirus Mortality Rates by Country

## Coronavirus Curves and Different Outcomes

**UPDATED May 9, 2020**. The coronavirus, or COVID19, has swept around the world. However, not all countries have had the same experiences. Outcomes have varied by the number of cases, the rate of increase, and how countries have responded.

In this post, I present coronavirus growth curves for 15 countries and their per capita values, graph their new cases per day, daily coronavirus deaths, and describe how each country approached controlling the virus. You can see the differences in outcomes and when the effects of coronavirus mitigation efforts started taking effect. I also include the per capita values for these countries in a table near the end.

At this time, there is plenty of good news with evidence that many of the 15 countries have slowed the growth rate of new cases. However, several other countries have reason to worry. And, we have one new cautionary tale about a country that had the virus contained but is now seeing a spike in new cases. [Read more…] about Coronavirus Curves and Different Outcomes

## 5 Ways to Find Outliers in Your Data

Outliers are data points that are far from other data points. In other words, they’re unusual values in a dataset. Outliers are problematic for many statistical analyses because they can cause tests to either miss significant findings or distort real results.

Unfortunately, there are no strict statistical rules for definitively identifying outliers. Finding outliers depends on subject-area knowledge and an understanding of the data collection process. While there is no solid mathematical definition, there are guidelines and statistical tests you can use to find outlier candidates. [Read more…] about 5 Ways to Find Outliers in Your Data

## Low Power Tests Exaggerate Effect Sizes

If your study has low statistical power, it will exaggerate the effect size. What?!

Statistical power is the ability of a hypothesis test to detect an effect that exists in the population. Clearly, a high-powered study is a good thing just for being able to identify these effects. Low power reduces your chances of discovering real findings. However, many analysts don’t realize that low power also inflates the effect size.

In this post, I show how this unexpected relationship between power and exaggerated effect sizes exists. I’ll also tie it to other issues, such as the bias of effects published in journals and other matters about statistical power. I think this post will be eye-opening and thought provoking! As always, I’ll use many graphs rather than equations. [Read more…] about Low Power Tests Exaggerate Effect Sizes

## Using Confidence Intervals to Compare Means

To determine whether the difference between two means is statistically significant, analysts often compare the confidence intervals for those groups. If those intervals overlap, they conclude that the difference between groups is not statistically significant. If there is no overlap, the difference is significant.

While this visual method of assessing the overlap is easy to perform, regrettably it comes at the cost of reducing your ability to detect differences. Fortunately, there is a simple solution to this problem that allows you to perform a simple visual assessment and yet not diminish the power of your analysis.

In this post, I’ll start by showing you the problem in action and explain why it happens. Then, we’ll proceed to an easy alternative method that avoids this problem. [Read more…] about Using Confidence Intervals to Compare Means

## Can High P-values Be Meaningful?

Can high p-values be helpful? What do high p-values mean?

Typically, when you perform a hypothesis test, you want to obtain low p-values that are statistically significant. Low p-values are sexy. They represent exciting findings and can help you get articles published.

However, you might be surprised to learn that higher p-values, the ones that are not statistically significant, are also valuable. In this post, I’ll show you the potential value of a p-value that is greater than 0.05, or whatever significance level you’re using. [Read more…] about Can High P-values Be Meaningful?

## Using Histograms to Understand Your Data

Histograms are graphs that display the distribution of your continuous data. They are fantastic exploratory tools because they reveal properties about your sample data in ways that summary statistics cannot. For instance, while the mean and standard deviation can numerically summarize your data, histograms bring your sample data to life.

In this blog post, I’ll show you how histograms reveal the shape of the distribution, its central tendency, and the spread of values in your sample data. You’ll also learn how to identify outliers, how histograms relate to probability distribution functions, and why you might need to use hypothesis tests with them.

[Read more…] about Using Histograms to Understand Your Data

## Boxplots vs. Individual Value Plots: Graphing Continuous Data by Groups

Graphing your data before performing statistical analysis is a crucial step. Graphs bring your data to life in a way that statistical measures do not because they display the relationships and patterns. In this blog post, you’ll learn about using boxplots and individual value plots to compare distributions of continuous measurements between groups. You’ll also learn why you need to pair these plots with hypothesis tests when you want to make inferences about a population. [Read more…] about Boxplots vs. Individual Value Plots: Graphing Continuous Data by Groups

## Using Post Hoc Tests with ANOVA

Post hoc tests are an integral part of ANOVA. When you use ANOVA to test the equality of at least three group means, statistically significant results indicate that not all of the group means are equal. However, ANOVA results do not identify which particular differences between pairs of means are significant. Use post hoc tests to explore differences between multiple group means while controlling the experiment-wise error rate.

In this post, I’ll show you what post hoc analyses are, the critical benefits they provide, and help you choose the correct one for your study. Additionally, I’ll show why failure to control the experiment-wise error rate will cause you to have severe doubts about your results. [Read more…] about Using Post Hoc Tests with ANOVA

## Central Limit Theorem Explained

The central limit theorem in statistics states that, given a sufficiently large sample size, the sampling distribution of the mean for a variable will approximate a normal distribution regardless of that variable’s distribution in the population.

Unpacking the meaning from that complex definition can be difficult. That’s the topic for this post! I’ll walk you through the various aspects of the central limit theorem (CLT) definition, and show you why it is vital in statistics. [Read more…] about Central Limit Theorem Explained

## Introduction to Bootstrapping in Statistics with an Example

Bootstrapping is a statistical procedure that resamples a single dataset to create many simulated samples. This process allows you to calculate standard errors, construct confidence intervals, and perform hypothesis testing for numerous types of sample statistics. Bootstrap methods are alternative approaches to traditional hypothesis testing and are notable for being easier to understand and valid for more conditions.

In this blog post, I explain bootstrapping basics, compare bootstrapping to conventional statistical methods, and explain when it can be the better method. Additionally, I’ll work through an example using real data to create bootstrapped confidence intervals. [Read more…] about Introduction to Bootstrapping in Statistics with an Example

## Assessing Normality: Histograms vs. Normal Probability Plots

Because histograms display the shape and spread of distributions, you might think they’re the best type of graph for determining whether your data are normally distributed. However, I’ll show you how histograms can trick you! Normal probability plots are a better choice for this task and they are easy to use.

[Read more…] about Assessing Normality: Histograms vs. Normal Probability Plots

## Normal Distribution in Statistics

The normal distribution is the most important probability distribution in statistics because it fits many natural phenomena. For example, heights, blood pressure, measurement error, and IQ scores follow the normal distribution. It is also known as the Gaussian distribution and the bell curve.

The normal distribution is a probability function that describes how the values of a variable are distributed. It is a symmetric distribution where most of the observations cluster around the central peak and the probabilities for values further away from the mean taper off equally in both directions. Extreme values in both tails of the distribution are similarly unlikely.

In this blog post, you’ll learn how to use the normal distribution, about its parameters, and how to calculate Z-scores to standardize your data and find probabilities. [Read more…] about Normal Distribution in Statistics

## Understanding Probability Distributions

A probability distribution is a function that describes the likelihood of obtaining the possible values that a random variable can assume. In other words, the values of the variable vary based on the underlying probability distribution.

Suppose you draw a random sample and measure the heights of the subjects. As you measure heights, you can create a distribution of heights. This type of distribution is useful when you need to know which outcomes are most likely, the spread of potential values, and the likelihood of different results.

In this blog post, you’ll learn about probability distributions for both discrete and continuous variables. I’ll show you how they work and examples of how to use them. [Read more…] about Understanding Probability Distributions

## Interpreting Correlation Coefficients

A correlation between variables indicates that as one variable changes in value, the other variable tends to change in a specific direction. Understanding that relationship is useful because we can use the value of one variable to predict the value of the other variable. For example, height and weight are correlated—as height increases, weight also tends to increase. Consequently, if we observe an individual who is unusually tall, we can predict that his weight is also above the average. [Read more…] about Interpreting Correlation Coefficients

## Estimating a Good Sample Size for Your Study Using Power Analysis

Determining a good sample size for a study is always an important issue. After all, using the wrong sample size can doom your study from the start. Fortunately, power analysis can find the answer for you. Power analysis combines statistical analysis, subject-area knowledge, and your requirements to help you derive the optimal sample size for your study.

Statistical power in a hypothesis test is the probability that the test will detect an effect that actually exists. As you’ll see in this post, both under-powered and over-powered studies are problematic. Let’s learn how to find a good sample size for your study! [Read more…] about Estimating a Good Sample Size for Your Study Using Power Analysis