Moderna has announced encouraging preliminary results for their COVID-19 vaccine. In this post, I assess the available data and explain what the vaccine’s effectiveness really means. I also look at Moderna’s experimental design and examine how it incorporates statistical procedures and concepts that I discuss throughout my blog posts and books. [Read more…] about Assessing a COVID-19 Vaccination Experiment and Its Results
coronavirus
Coronavirus Mortality Rates by Country
UPDATED! April 3, 2020. The coronavirus mortality rate varies significantly by country. In this post, I look at the mortality rates for ten countries and assess factors that affect these numbers. After discussing the trends, I provide a rough estimate for where the actual fatality rate might lie. [Read more…] about Coronavirus Mortality Rates by Country
Coronavirus: Exponential Growth and Hospital Beds
UPDATED March 24, 2020: As the number of confirmed coronavirus cases continues to grow exponentially, the capacity of the hospital system to treat these cases is becoming a concern. The goal of “flattening the curve” is that testing, isolation, and social distancing will slow the increase of new cases. Hopefully, these efforts reduce the numbers of new patients who require hospitalization to a rate that hospitals can handle.
In this post, I’ll identify the top 10 states in the United States that have the greatest likelihood of experiencing hospital capacity problems if coronavirus cases continue to grow exponentially. To recognize these states, I’ll assess per capita rates for both coronavirus infections and hospital beds. I’m looking for states that have a relatively large number of coronavirus cases given the size of their population and have a relatively low number of hospital beds. [Read more…] about Coronavirus: Exponential Growth and Hospital Beds
Coronavirus Curves and Different Outcomes
UPDATED May 9, 2020. The coronavirus, or COVID19, has swept around the world. However, not all countries have had the same experiences. Outcomes have varied by the number of cases, the rate of increase, and how countries have responded.
In this post, I present coronavirus growth curves for 15 countries and their per capita values, graph their new cases per day, daily coronavirus deaths, and describe how each country approached controlling the virus. You can see the differences in outcomes and when the effects of coronavirus mitigation efforts started taking effect. I also include the per capita values for these countries in a table near the end.
At this time, there is plenty of good news with evidence that many of the 15 countries have slowed the growth rate of new cases. However, several other countries have reason to worry. And, we have one new cautionary tale about a country that had the virus contained but is now seeing a spike in new cases. [Read more…] about Coronavirus Curves and Different Outcomes